By NATE SMITH – Prep2Prep.com
DIVISION II
Projected seeds:
1. Campolindo
2. Concord
3. Redwood
4. Ukiah
5. Windsor
6. Granada
7. Santa Rosa
8. Livermore
9. College Park
10. Northgate
11. Washington
12. Mt. Eden
13. Hayward
Rationale: Campolindo has a near-lock on the top seed at this moment, especially after blowing out Concord last Friday night. We are leaving Concord in the two spot for now, since the Minutemen will likely beat Las Lomas next week. That means this week’s game with Miramonte is huge.
Redwood has games remaining with San Marin and San Rafael, and if the Giants win both, should be a likely three seed since their only loss this season is to Marin Catholic, and they have wins over Maria Carrillo and Mt. Eden. This week’s game with San Marin is for sole possession of second place in the MCAL.
It seems likely that a North Bay League team will grab the fourth seed, especially after Livermore’s loss to Dublin, but the door is still open for Livermore or Granada as well, especially with the way the NBL teams keep knocking each other off. Right now, we are leaving Ukiah there, since its only two losses are against Cardinal Newman and Rancho Cotate, and the Wildcats have wins over both Santa Rosa and Casa Grande. Wins over Montgomery and Windsor should lock up a top-four seed for the Wildcats.
Windsor is now in our top five, despite a one-sided loss to Cardinal Newman, and can climb higher with games remaining against Casa Grande and Ukiah. If the Jaguars beat Casa Grande this week, the regular season finale against Ukiah should be for a top-four seed.
Livermore falls a few spots this week after a real damaging loss to Dublin, but has big opportunities to move back up with games remaining against Foothill and Granada. Speaking of Granada, the one-point loss to Foothill is certainly a quality loss on the resume, although missing a late field goal to win the game hurts. A win in that game would have all but cemented a top-four seed for the Matadors. They finish, however, with Dougherty Valley and Livermore, so a 5-5 overall record is plausible, which should get a good seed considering strength of schedule.
Santa Rosa has big wins over Carrillo, Montgomery, and Berkeley on its resume, but the loss to Windsor hurts. Like Granada, the Panthers fell just short of notching a signature victory last week, falling by two points to Rancho Cotate. This week will be tough, with Cardinal Newman, but Santa Rosa will have a shot at getting to six wins if it beats Casa Grande in the season finale. An upset this week, meanwhile, would send the Panthers soaring.
College Park has a big head-to-head win over Northgate, but does not have as big a win as Livermore’s win over Amador Valley. However, if the Falcons finish strong with wins over Berean Christian and Alhambra, they would be league champions and virtually guaranteed of a top-eight seed at that point.
Northgate just picked up a huge win over Berean Christian, but remains behind College Park due to the head-to-head loss. Mt. Eden also climbs in this week’s projections, after beating Hayward by 23 points. They stay behind Northgate, though, due to Alameda as a common opponent. Northgate beat the Hornets, while Mt. Eden suffered a loss.
Hayward’s loss to the Monarchs is certainly going to hurt the Farmers’ seeding, and right now it drops the Farmers all the way to 13, despite the win over Encinal. But if Hayward can win out and be a league champion, it can still get a home game in the first round regardless of seeding.
Washington is already playoff eligible, and has a win over Pinole Valley, who did beat College Park. The win over Alameda is also big right now, since the Hornets beat Mt. Eden. The Huskies also have a one-point loss to Alhambra, though, so we are waiting until after College Park and Northgate play Alhambra in the next two games to use that common opponent.
A handful of teams are still able to become eligible, but with work to do. Casa Grande needs to win one of its final two, facing Windsor and Santa Rosa. Montgomery needs to win its final two games, facing Ukiah and Carrillo.
Full article is available here – NCS Playoff Predictions